Hurrican IDA..Think it will affect Key West?!

[Ms PatriYacht]

Between Bob's high seas adventures and the latest in weather and tracking devices he now owns plus the fact that he is to busy piloting his Nortech and Donzi to build houses, I think he needs to change his name to BobtheWeatherman

[Ms PatriYacht]

Truthfully though his information while not what we want to hear is important for those traveling by boat, so thanks for keeping us well informed

[Gladhe8er]

when do the poker runners come in and when do they leave..?

There are 4 runs down(Tues, Wed, Thurs, Fri). The later in the week, the more boats usually. People leave at their leisure...usually Sunday and Monday for most of them.

[Bobthebuilder]

Truthfully though his information while not what we want to hear is important for those traveling by boat, so thanks for keeping us well informed

Thanks, Donna. I had some hesitancy to post this info as I do not want to scare anyone off but at the same time felt a responsibility to my friends in the the offshore boating community to at least make them aware what to expect if the forecasts prove to be accurate. I am using info only from official weather sites like NOAA Marine Weather and The Weather Channel etc to avoid any speculation, as things can sometimes get out of hand with misinformation. It is best to be armed with good acurate information and then a Captain can make the right decision for the safety of his boat and crew. That's why I'm still around.

[Bobthebuilder]

Since we are on a roll here this is a link to areally cool site that I also use. It does show improvement after the effects of the storm pass thru. There is a control bar at the top left of the chart that will allow you to pause or move forward or back incrementally.


http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/disp...i?a=gom_height

[L-V]

Have a good time and have a few for me

will do bro!

[Bobthebuilder]

Just as I had hoped for the Wednesday forecast is showing an improvement with winds dropping to less than 15 K. With the protections offered by Biscayne Bay, the Keys and the fact that there is no need to travel outside the reef it is looking much better by mid week. I will post further updates as they come available.

GMZ052-053-054-072-073-074-075-070330-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
430 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT


TONIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS
BEYOND THE REEF 8 TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 3 TO 4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS EXTREMELY ROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 8
TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF
3 TO 5 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS EXTREMELY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 8 TO 11 FEET...
EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 3 TO 5 FEET.
NEARSHORE WATERS EXTREMELY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MONDAY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 8 TO 11 FEET. SEAS INSIDE
THE REEF 3 TO 5 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS EXTREMELY ROUGH. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 7 TO 10 FEET...
SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO
4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS VERY ROUGH...BECOMING CHOPPY IN THE
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 4 TO 6
FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO 3 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS A MODERATE
CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

[BUIZILLA]

looks like Weds calls for an about face... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...large#contents

[Bobthebuilder]

looks like Weds calls for an about face... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...large#contents

Saw that. Lets hope that does not happen or just fades away. They have become very good at predicting the direction of these things in recent years.

[25 hors la loi]

Info on IDA on StormPulse

maybe little bumpy in the next few days ?

[Bobthebuilder]

Info on IDA on StormPulse

maybe little bumpy in the next few days ?

Nice site that I was unaware of. Thanks.

[JupiterSunsation]

Should make for some great photos of the boats running down.....

[Bobthebuilder]

Tonights forecast now includes next Thursday.
This forecast is for the Atlantic waters from Key Largo to Key West.
Travel inside the reef and on the Florida Bay side should not be a problem I expect. As I mentioned before there is no need to travel outside the reef in the big water.

Synopsis...STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTLINE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE STRONG BREEZES...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS...WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

Overnight...Northeast to east winds 25 to 30 knots...with occasional gusts near 35 knots. Seas beyond the reef 8 to 11 feet...except higher in the gulf stream. Seas inside the reef 3 to 5 feet. Nearshore waters extremely rough. Scattered showers.

Sunday...East winds 25 to 30 knots...with occasional gusts near 35 knots. Seas beyond the reef 8 to 11 feet...except higher in the gulf stream. Seas inside the reef 3 to 5 feet. Nearshore waters extremely rough. Scattered showers in the morning. Numerous showers in the afternoon.

Sunday Night...East winds 25 to 30 knots...with occasional gusts near 35 knots. Seas beyond the reef 8 to 11 feet...except higher in the gulf stream. Seas inside the reef 3 to 5 feet. Nearshore waters extremely rough. Numerous showers.

Monday...East to southeast winds 25 to 30 knots...with occasional gusts near 35 knots. Seas beyond the reef 8 to 11 feet. Seas inside the reef 3 to 5 feet. Nearshore waters extremely rough. Numerous showers.

Monday Night...East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas beyond the reef 7 to 10 feet. Seas inside the reef 2 to 4 feet. Nearshore waters very rough. Scattered showers.

Tuesday...Southeast winds near 20 knots...decreasing to near 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas beyond the reef 6 to 9 feet...subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters rough...becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. Scattered showers.

Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas beyond the reef 3 to 5 feet. Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.

Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas beyond the reef 4 to 6 feet...except higher in the gulf stream. Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.

[Bobcat]

you should worry more about me..... I have been on a beer and chili diet for almost three days..... and I am doing jumping jacks

[Bobthebuilder]

you should worry more about me..... I have been on a beer and chili diet for almost three days..... and I am doing jumping jacks

So your getting ready for our arrival, Bob. LOL How are things down there? As windy as the they are saying or is it hard tp tell holed up in the Conch Republic ??

[Bobthebuilder]

For those traveling from Miami south to Key West much of your route is on the Florida Bay side which is well protected. Travel should not be a problem for most boats I would expect. This forecast is for Florida Bay:

Overnight...Northeast to east winds 20 to 25 knots and gusty. Bay waters very rough. Scattered showers.

Sunday...East winds near 25 knots and gusty. Bay waters extremely rough. Scattered showers in the morning. Numerous showers in the afternoon.

Sunday Night...East winds 25 to 30 knots...with occasional gusts near 35 knots. Bay waters extremely rough. Numerous showers.

Monday...East to southeast winds 25 to 30 knots...with occasional gusts near 35 knots. Bay waters extremely rough. Numerous showers.

Monday Night...East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters very rough. Scattered showers.

Tuesday...Southeast winds near 20 knots...decreasing to near 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough...becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. Scattered showers.

Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.

Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Scattered showers.

[Bobcat]

So your getting ready for our arrival, Bob. LOL How are things down there? As windy as the they are saying or is it hard tp tell holed up in the Conch Republic ??

pretty windy, but is supposed to die down a little by tuesday, 10 to 15 as opposed to 25 mph. here is the 5 day outlook for Ida

[Bobthebuilder]

Since the effects of Hurricane Ida on Key West will be diminishing as the week goes on I see no need for posting additional weather info unless there is a substantial change in the forecast. Conditions look good and I will see you all in Key West. I get to travel on the Gulf where conditions are not as great as this routing thru the Keys. Anyone wanting any additional or specific info is welcome to contact me if they cannot find it in the links referenced in this thread. Thanks for the many PM's and notes from those that have an interest and followed along. See you in Key West on Thursday!
Bob

NOAA National Weather Service Marine Weather forecast for Biscayne Bay to The Keys:

Tuesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy in exposed areas. Isolated showers.

Tuesday Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.

Wednesday...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday...East winds around 10 knots becoming around 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

NOAA forecast for Florida Bay which includes The Keys:

Tuesday...Southeast winds decreasing to near 15 knots. Bay waters becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers.

Wednesday...South to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.

Thursday...North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Scattered showers.

NOAA forecast for the Hawk Channel ( inside the reef ) Marathon to Key West ( note that I have deleted reference to seas outside the reef and in the Gulf Stream as that info is not relevant – no need to go out there.)

Tuesday...Southeast winds decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers.

Wednesday...South to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.

Thursday...North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.

[MarylandMark]

With Bob being the WORLD RECORD FLORIDA TO CANCUN CHAMPION as well as the other awesome adventures; I'd trust how you read the info more than I trust the weatherman.

1st hand experience running those very seas is priceless (or pricey may be a better way to say it)

[jmbtile]

BOB
which coast are you departing from?