Brown vs. Coakley- Health care @ stake

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Early results are in and Brown has 54% to Coakleys 45% but that is only 1% in so far

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5% in and it is a lot closer now 52 47

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Same spread and 25% in

[BUIZILLA]

was Jay the only Coakley vote in this poll?

[JupiterSunsation]

Sullivan has posted another reader email about the race:

Lifelong Massachusetts voter here. I've enjoyed your thoughtful coverage of the senate race over the past few days, but now that I've gotten a gander at our local polling place this morning, I think we may have all over-thought this.

I was curious to see who in our small, fairly wealthy town was fired up enough to actually get out there and hold signs for Brown -- turns out, a hockey dad and the assistant Pop Warner football coach, both white guys in their 40s, both small business owners. These guys may possibly have voted for Obama, but that's about as far over on the macho scale as they'd ever be willing to go. Guaranteed they voted for Celtics owner Steve Pagliuca in the primary, or possibly brawlin' Mike Capuano, but when Coakley won, they were out of there.

She's a lawyer and a female DA, so doubly emasculating in their eyes. She didn't help herself after the primary by only relying on the old Hillary base, which is other ball-buster female lawyers. That's a strong enough group to win a four-way primary but no way big enough for the general election.

In that context, all Scott Brown had to do was show up and 1) be white 2) be male and 3) come off as anything other than an elite. Hence the truck and hunting shirts, a brilliant touch on his campaign's part, and one that will probably win him the election.

This race is all about the suburbs -- neither candidate has anything to offer the working poor -- and, very sad to say, even in educated, liberal Massachusetts, many suburban wives still vote as their husbands vote, or, if they don't like his candidate, they just don't vote at all. It'll be interesting to see how the vote breaks down in terms of gender and suburban-urban, but given all this, I think Coakley is toast. Angry white guys for the win.

So your saying if anyone that was the opposite of Obama entered the race now he would win too?

White, non lawyer, non elite?

[Audiofn]

45% in and same spread

[JupiterSunsation]

Ted's legacy is dead..............Ma$$holes are tired of Democrats!

Boston, Massachusetts (CNN) -- Republican Scott Brown grabbed a solid lead with almost a third of results counted in Tuesday's special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat controlled by the Kennedy family since 1953.

Brown, a Massachusetts state senator, had 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent for state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic contender, with 30 percent of precincts reporting in results from the National Election Pool, a consortium of media organizations including CNN. Independent candidate Joseph Kennedy, a libertarian who is not related to the Kennedy political family of Massachusetts, had 1 percent.

At stake was President Obama's domestic agenda, including health care reform.

If Brown upsets Coakley, Republicans will strip Democrats of the 60-seat Senate supermajority needed to overcome GOP filibusters against future Senate action on a broad range of White House priorities.

Final numbers on election turnout are expected "to be pretty good" despite the wintry weather, said Brian McNiff, a spokesman for the office of Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin.

"I don't think weather is going to impede too many people" from coming out to vote, McNiff said Tuesday. "I think the interest in this election will trump any bad weather."

Galvin predicted Monday as many 2.2 million of the state's 4.5 million registered voters would vote -- at least double the turnout from December's primary. In one sign of high interest, more than 100,000 absentee ballots were requested ahead of the election, according to McNiff.

iReport: Send us your thoughts on the special election

Coakley was initially expected to easily win the race to replace Sen. Ted Kennedy, known as the "liberal lion" of the Senate who made health care reform the centerpiece of his nearly 47-year Senate career. Kennedy died of brain cancer in August.

Until recently, Brown was underfunded and unknown statewide. In addition, no Republican has won a U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts since 1972, and Democrats control the governorship, both houses of the state legislature, and the state's entire congressional delegates.

The latest poll, however, showed Brown leading Coakley by 7 points, 52 to 45 percent. The American Research Group survey, taken Friday through Sunday, had a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. No polls released in the past few days showed Coakley ahead.

In a sign of the high stakes involved, the Coakley campaign held an afternoon news conference Tuesday to complain that voters in three places received ballots already marked for Brown.

McNiff confirmed that the secretary of state's offices received two reports of voters saying they got pre-marked ballots. The suspect ballots were invalidated and the voters received new ballots, McNiff said.

Kevin Conroy, the Coakley campaign manager, said the "disturbing incidents" raised questions about the integrity of the election. In response, the Brown campaign issued a statement criticizing Coakley's team.

"Reports that the Coakley campaign is making reckless accusations regarding the integrity of today's election is a reminder that they are a desperate campaign," Daniel B. Winslow, the counsel for the Brown campaign, said in the statement.

Obama has been both "surprised and frustrated" by the race, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Tuesday.

Obama and former President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail over the past three days in an attempt to save Coakley's campaign, which observers say has been hampered by complacency and missteps.

Obama crushed Sen. John McCain in Massachusetts in 2008, beating the GOP presidential nominee by 26 points.

"If you were fired up in the last election, I need you more fired up in this election," Obama urged a crowd at a Coakley campaign rally on Sunday.

Vicki Kennedy, the senator's widow, called on state Democrats to turn out to save her husband's legacy.

"We need your help. We need your support. We need you to get out there and vote on Tuesday," Kennedy said. "We need you to bring your neighbors. We need you to bring your friends."

Brown, who has trumpeted his 30 years of service in the National Guard, hewed to traditional GOP themes at the end of the campaign. He promised at a rally Sunday that, if elected, he would back tax cuts and be tougher on terrorists than Coakley.

He also repeated a pledge to oppose Obama's health care reform effort.

"Massachusetts wants real reform and not this trillion-dollar Obama health care that is being forced on the American people," he said. "As the 41st [Republican] senator I will make sure that we do it better."

Forty-four percent of Massachusetts voters cited the economy and jobs as their top concern in a recent 7 News/Suffolk University poll. Thirty-eight percent mentioned health care as their top concern.

Voters more concerned with the economy were split almost evenly between the two candidates; voters more worried about health care narrowly supported Coakley.

Brown's surprising strength came in part because some independents and conservatives who have supported Democrats in the past were having second thoughts.

Democrats far outnumber Republicans in Massachusetts, but there are more independents than Democrats and Republicans combined.

Several Democratic sources said multiple Obama advisers have told the party they believe Coakley is going to lose. The sources said they still hoped Obama's weekend visit to the state, coupled with a late push by party activists, could tip the balance in her favor, but Obama aides have grown increasingly pessimistic since Friday.

Facing the possibility of Coakley's defeat, Democrats were trying to figure out if they could pass health care reform without that crucial 60th Senate vote. But top White House aides publicly insisted they are not engaging in any talk of contingency plans, because they believe Coakley will come out on top Tuesday.

The seat is currently held by former Kennedy aide and longtime friend Paul Kirk, who was appointed to the seat on an interim basis.

Galvin, the Democratic secretary of state, said last week that certifying Tuesday's election results could take more than two weeks -- potentially enough time to allow congressional Democrats to pass a final health care bill before Brown is seated, if he should win.

But multiple Democratic sources said this is unlikely. Even if House and Senate Democrats could reach a deal to meld their bills and pass them in the next couple of weeks, there would be a huge outcry from not only Republicans, but also an increasingly distrustful public if they appeared to be rushing it through.

Two Democratic sources in close contact with the White House told CNN on Monday they've urged the administration, in the event of a Brown victory, to push House Democrats to pass the Senate's health care bill as currently written. Doing so would prevent the plan from having to be taken up by the Senate again.

"I think the Senate bill clearly is better than nothing," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Maryland, said Tuesday.

A third option would be for Democrats to revisit the idea of trying to push health care through the Senate with only 51 votes -- a simple majority.

But to do that Democrats would have to use a process known as reconciliation, which presents technical and procedural issues that would delay the process for a long time. A number of Democrats are eager to put the health care debate behind them and move on to economic issues such as job creation as soon as possible this election year.

Senate Democrats could also try again to get moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine to vote for a compromise health reform plan. Multiple Democratic sources, however, have said they believe that is unlikely now.

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63% votes counted 53% Brown 46% Coakley

[Tommy Gun]

Coakley Concedes! Bye, bye Barack!

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75% and same spread and Coakley is going to concede!!!!

[Tommy Gun]

Astonishing; revolution; referendum, etc...RIP Teddy.

[Ratickle]

AP: Brown wins Mass. Senate race in epic upset

GOP victory leaves President Barack Obama's health care overhaul in doubt

And that's just a start of what will happen this year in November.......

[Ratickle]

AP Wall Street watched race

Wall Street watched the election closely. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 116 points, and analysts attributed the increase to hopes the election would make it harder for Obama to make his changes to health care.

[Tommy Gun]

So now that Brown has won in a LANDSLIDE, (IN MASS!) what will Msgrs: Pelosi, Reid and Obama pull next? Will they start making concessions or continue to push their far left agenda?

[Tommy Gun]

TPM. And it was information from polling stations- did it sound like poll results? The polls have been all over the place for the last two weeks, which is normal for a special election, impossible to track. But the trends probably tell the story. I'm betting it's within 5%, but don't ask me which way.

Man, this is so much fun... why don't all of you guys meet me over at Olbermann's house for beer and wings- we can watch the returns!

So how's the party going...any wings LEFT?

[Ratickle]

MSNBC

The loss by the once-favored Democrat Martha Coakley in the Democratic stronghold was a stunning embarrassment for the White House after Obama rushed to Boston on Sunday to try to save the foundering candidate.

[Tommy Gun]

Watch what the Democrats do in the next few days...it will be very telling.

[Audiofn]

Coakley was once ahead by around 30 points. While she ran a horible campaign it was not her that caused this loss. It was the Democrats in Washington that caused this win. We are sick of the back room deals, payoffs and bribes for votes and this is what they get. While I am sure they will all blame coakley it is more their fault. Anyone that watched this guys acceptance speach will know why people like him. He is a few carismatic guy!

[sledge]

And his daughters are single!

[sledge]

Seriously though....like Jon says, it's more about this country being disappointed with DC. Like I've been saying, this is the year of the underdog.