Alright, What Gives? (trying to sell a boat)

[2TR]

I have had my Scarab listed for a couple weeks now at what I thought was a fair "asking price", but maybe not. I did have it listed last summer and got some seriously low ball offers (25k-28k) but i figured that was understandable with the economy.

It's a 1999 29ft w/twin 350's, nicely equipped with low fresh water hours and always racked stored, I'm asking 36K with a aluminum trailer..

is this to much in this economy?
Bad color combo?
or what ??

I went threw this boat over the past month and replaced the gimbal, had the drives serviced even replaced the trailer bearings... are people still worried about buying or is 36k to much? Hell I have seen a 1995 with 3 times the hours listed at 40k.


Picture:
http://i40.tinypic.com/2s6vig9.jpg

[cigdaze]

I'd say you're in the ballpark...heck the ad right under yours is a '95 with the same motors, and they're asking 39k.

[sellsman11]

I have had my Scarab listed for a couple weeks now at what I thought was a fair "asking price", but maybe not. I did have it listed last summer and got some seriously low ball offers (25k-28k) but i figured that was understandable with the economy.

It's a 1999 29ft w/twin 350's, nicely equipped with low fresh water hours and always racked stored, I'm asking 36K with a aluminum trailer..

is this to much in this economy?
Bad color combo?
or what ??


Welcome to the boat business. I think the boat is worth mid 30's but what do I know?? If you have someone making offers, you BETTER stay on em!

[2TR]

If you have someone making offers, you BETTER stay on em!

Thats the problem, the people making offers are calling and low-balling it by 10-15k.

[baddogz28]

That seems like a fair asking price to me. Good luck with the sale.

[Top Banana]

It will either go quickly or not at all. We are all going through an economic time that is unlike anything anyone has ever experienced before.

The first of three areas has collapsed. The housing market, combined with massive unemployment numbers, which will in turn create the second collapse around August or so...the commerecial real estate market. The third and final leg will collapse around the end of the year and that will be the credit card market.

Combine these three with historical facts...which has proven over and over again that what is being tried by the gov't has never worked, repeat...never worked in the history of the world, with any government that ever tried it.

So hold on to you boat, because when the hyperinflation starts, you will be able to sell it for twice what your asking....the only problem is, that will be the same price as a loaf of bread.

[2TR]

It will either go quickly or not at all. We are all going through an economic time that is unlike anything anyone has ever experienced before.

The first of three areas has collapsed. The housing market, combined with massive unemployment numbers, which will in turn create the second collapse around August or so...the commerecial real estate market. The third and final leg will collapse around the end of the year and that will be the credit card market.

Combine these three with historical facts...which has proven over and over again that what is being tried by the gov't has never worked, repeat...never worked in the history of the world, with any government that ever tried it.

So hold on to you boat, because when the hyperinflation starts, you will be able to sell it for twice what your asking....the only problem is, that will be the same price as a loaf of bread.



Ummmmmm.... thanks, I think.
:willy_nilly:




lol



Back to selling: I have seen other 29 Scarabs sell for more than mine in the past months. is there a problem with the way I listed it? The Pictures?

[Top Banana]

Seriously the market is way off right now so you can't go by anything other than what you feel is a good number.

You are competing against boat dealers who have gone under all over the nation....that inventory has to be moved.

Then you have boat manufacturers who have gone under...that inventory has to be moved.

Then you have the guys who have given back their keys because they could no longer make the note.....that inventory has to be moved.

Only the really high end stuff is moving right now at anywhere near the real price. If you really want to get out of the boat, follow up with whoever is giving you any offer. Sad as it seems, they are the ones that are setting the market right now.

The strong ones can afford to sit on the sidelines and wait it out....the weak are history and until the three layers of excess inventory is flushed through the buyers that are real.....price is totally unknown.

[bulletbob]

It's a tough market Rick. I sold my hull for 4000.00 under blue book just to get rid of it. Good luck. Bob

[SVL66]

The market is flooded right now. Everyone is liquidating assets, or just trying to get out of debt. If anyone is buying a boat at market value, send them my way. I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale.

If your not giving it away, they wont buy it. Sad truth.

[Ratickle]

It will either go quickly or not at all. We are all going through an economic time that is unlike anything anyone has ever experienced before.

The first of three areas has collapsed. The housing market, combined with massive unemployment numbers, which will in turn create the second collapse around August or so...the commerecial real estate market. The third and final leg will collapse around the end of the year and that will be the credit card market.

Combine these three with historical facts...which has proven over and over again that what is being tried by the gov't has never worked, repeat...never worked in the history of the world, with any government that ever tried it.

So hold on to you boat, because when the hyperinflation starts, you will be able to sell it for twice what your asking....the only problem is, that will be the same price as a loaf of bread.

You're making me nervous Charlie. Is that your professional opinion?

[Ratickle]

The market is flooded right now. Everyone is liquidating assets, or just trying to get out of debt. If anyone is buying a boat at market value, send them my way. I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale.

If your not giving it away, they wont buy it. Sad truth.

Yep. I'm sitting on our real estate and boats right now. I'm figuring the first thing that will happen is bartering/trades.

[Ratickle]

It sure looks like Rick's boat is the best value in our classifieds between 30 and 40 now......

[mosi]

Unfortunatly....it's STILL IN the ads.......thus buyers do not think the same way.

[sellsman11]

Back to selling: I have seen other 29 Scarabs sell for more than mine in the past months. is there a problem with the way I listed it? The Pictures?



NO.....you have seen other 29 Scarabs that were ASKING more than you sell. Only the buyer and seller know what the final price was. Trust me.

[2TR]

NO.....you have seen other 29 Scarabs that were ASKING more than you sell. Only the buyer and seller know what the final price was. Trust me.

True... Would 33K be a better price?

[Knot 4 Me]

The price is fair IMO. I've been looking at this boat for awhile. If I did not have my current boat, I would be in touch with you. And no, I would not be low-balling you.

Are you located in Michigan or am I thinking of a similar boat that was for sale about a year ago?

[2TR]

The price is fair IMO. I've been looking at this boat for awhile. If I did not have my current boat, I would be in touch with you. And no, I would not be low-balling you.

Are you located in Michigan or am I thinking of a similar boat that was for sale about a year ago?


I'm in Chesterfield, MI. It was listed last year but I was not really getting any serious offers so I pulled it. Now the wife is all about a Sedan Bridge "Weekend" boat and I would really like to sell this one before I buy another, Owning 3 boats is grounds for divorce in some states.

[BraceYourself]

If your getting low ball offers that is great. Every deal starts somewhere. The best salesmen end up taking low ball offers into workable figures. People never really know what they really are going to end up spending when they like something. Just need to convince low ballers that they haven't realized the value of your boat.

[sellsman11]

If your getting low ball offers that is great. Every deal starts somewhere. The best salesmen end up taking low ball offers into workable figures. People never really know what they really are going to end up spending when they like something. Just need to convince low ballers that they haven't realized the value of your boat.



DING DING DING.....We have a winner!

[Knot 4 Me]

I'm in Chesterfield, MI. It was listed last year but I was not really getting any serious offers so I pulled it. Now the wife is all about a Sedan Bridge "Weekend" boat and I would really like to sell this one before I buy another, Owning 3 boats is grounds for divorce in some states.OK, then this is the same boat that used to be listed on OSO some time back. I thought it looked awfully familiar. It is a very nice boat and 2 or 3 years ago it wouldn't have lasted long at all. If I didn't already have a boat, I would be on your doorstep negotiating with cash in hand. Like you said though, multiple boats is grounds for divorce in some states! :sifone: I know a guy that has been barking about wanting a boat like this. I'll let him know about it and see if there is any bite in him.

[sellsman11]

True... Would 33K be a better price?


No need to lower your price. It will only lower offers.

I offer a CLOSING service on the side. For a small fee, I will hook you up!!;);)

[Knot 4 Me]

If your getting low ball offers that is great. Every deal starts somewhere. The best salesmen end up taking low ball offers into workable figures. People never really know what they really are going to end up spending when they like something. Just need to convince low ballers that they haven't realized the value of your boat.And if you have cash and won't be looking to turn this boat in a year or two it is a lot of boat for the money and a great value.

[PARADOX]

Any boat is only worth as much as some one willing to pay for it and buy it.
From first hand experience. :( I had the Avanti out this weekend, some guy was interested, (very little) but asked me if I would trade for a house.
Yeaahh.... right.

[2TR]

No need to lower your price. It will only lower offers.


Ok, 45K than.. :biggrinjester:


But thanks for all the help... I was thinking it was my boat, my ad or something I was doing wrong. I did get a e-mail from this ad and the person said the year makes it difficult to fiance (something about it being 10yrs old) and a person would have to come up with a substantial down payment for the bank.

[johnny g]

Your boat is definately priced right! Theres just not as many buyers out there right now and the ones that are have an incredible selection to choose from.

[Perlmudder]

There was a guy on OSO looking for a 29 Scarab. Might want to look into that...

[fund razor]

Charlie's post is making me so scared I might throw up. :(

[2TR]

There was a guy on OSO looking for a 29 Scarab. Might want to look into that...

Who ? If someone looking they might as well get the best value for the $$ and take a look at mine.... :sifone:

[TCEd]

Couldn't be in a worse market for selling a boat with the local economy and now Chrysler and GM further downsizing. I sold two homes in Troy and Beverly Hills last year and took huge hits on both and then understood what is going on with the economy locally.
Hopefully someone out of state has some loose cash.
ed

[glassdave]

OK, then this is the same boat that used to be listed on OSO some time back. I thought it looked awfully familiar. It is a very nice boat and 2 or 3 years ago it wouldn't have lasted long at all. If I didn't already have a boat, I would be on your doorstep negotiating with cash in hand. Like you said though, multiple boats is grounds for divorce in some states! :sifone: I know a guy that has been barking about wanting a boat like this. I'll let him know about it and see if there is any bite in him.

It is actually very nice to, i've seen it where it was stored up in Michigan there. Rick (2TR) takes care of his stuff to.

[DollaBill]

If your getting low ball offers that is great. Every deal starts somewhere. The best salesmen end up taking low ball offers into workable figures. People never really know what they really are going to end up spending when they like something. Just need to convince low ballers that they haven't realized the value of your boat.

bingo

[Davidmnc]

If your getting low ball offers that is great. Every deal starts somewhere. The best salesmen end up taking low ball offers into workable figures. People never really know what they really are going to end up spending when they like something. Just need to convince low ballers that they haven't realized the value of your boat.

Could not have said it better myself! :sifone:

[lucky strike]

If your getting low ball offers that is great. Every deal starts somewhere. The best salesmen end up taking low ball offers into workable figures. People never really know what they really are going to end up spending when they like something. Just need to convince low ballers that they haven't realized the value of your boat.

Well said

A bidder is better than a looker......

[RLJ676]

As someone who's been shopping, and sorta in this range (although my range keeps moving down due to being a GM employee.....to the point I'm not sure I'd buy anything now) I can offer my take.

What is NADA? If you are way over NADA, financing can be quite difficult. Everyone thinks book doesn't apply to them, but if financing is dependent on it the buyer has no choice.

Next, you are competing with repos and fire sales. I'm personally only looking to buy if it is way under blue book, and I think I could sell it in an emergency quick (see above comment about GM employee).

Last, I personally am not a fan of the 90's colors, but I do think there are people that love them, so wouldn't think it to be a big hurdle.

Good luck, sounds like the boat is well taken care of and will find a buyer.

Oh, and a few weeks is nothing in this market.

[2TR]

As someone who's been shopping, and sorta in this range (although my range keeps moving down due to being a GM employee.....to the point I'm not sure I'd buy anything now) I can offer my take.

What is NADA? If you are way over NADA, financing can be quite difficult. Everyone thinks book doesn't apply to them, but if financing is dependent on it the buyer has no choice.

Next, you are competing with repos and fire sales. I'm personally only looking to buy if it is way under blue book, and I think I could sell it in an emergency quick (see above comment about GM employee).

Last, I personally am not a fan of the 90's colors, but I do think there are people that love them, so wouldn't think it to be a big hurdle.

Good luck, sounds like the boat is well taken care of and will find a buyer.

Oh, and a few weeks is nothing in this market.


Thanks for the honesty!

I just checked NADA and I'm priced a little under average retail when the trailer is included, so financing would not be an issue. But I think your right, people are looking for "steals" not "deals" in this market and if it comes down to giving it away I would rather keep it.

[cosmic12]

I have to agree with whoever said that getting the F&I done on anything 10 yrs or older that is what I have seen and it is a tough one to get past if you don't have a big chunk of change down. I think you are priced where you should be but it is a tough market.
Good Luck I wish I could help by taking it off yer hands, just not in the cards this year

[RLJ676]

Thanks for the honesty!

I just checked NADA and I'm priced a little under average retail when the trailer is included, so financing would not be an issue. But I think your right, people are looking for "steals" not "deals" in this market and if it comes down to giving it away I would rather keep it.

Good work, if you're below NADA you are way ahead of most guys selling.:)

I don't want to name brands, but lets say you're interested in a 2001 "Funsation" 2888 that books for 33K avg, but guys are asking $55K.....well lets just say there's probably not a cash buyer looking for that particular boat. I'm not even going to bother calling these boats as I don't want to insult someone with a 20K off offer, but couldn't finance anywhere near the ask (not that I think a 10 year old single is worth 50K anyways these days).

Give it some time and see what happens. Also, more pics would never hurt the add. And make them good. I have had a truck listed with some crappy pics I took. I just traded it in and asked the guy to send me the pics he'll use on Ebay. He'll have it sold in no time I think, cuz his pics are that much better.

Guess which was my pic (the other one makes me want to go and buy the truck again!)?:26:

[LaughingCat]

It will either go quickly or not at all. We are all going through an economic time that is unlike anything anyone has ever experienced before.

The first of three areas has collapsed. The housing market, combined with massive unemployment numbers, which will in turn create the second collapse around August or so...the commerecial real estate market. The third and final leg will collapse around the end of the year and that will be the credit card market.

Combine these three with historical facts...which has proven over and over again that what is being tried by the gov't has never worked, repeat...never worked in the history of the world, with any government that ever tried it.

So hold on to you boat, because when the hyperinflation starts, you will be able to sell it for twice what your asking....the only problem is, that will be the same price as a loaf of bread.

A very strong opinion, but most likely incorrect. I just finished recording a 70 minute webinar which will be available soon that points to all the indicators getting stronger. Since I am licensed, i cannot promote it on a national website without being registered in every state. but if anyone wants to PM me, and if I am registered in your state, i will provide the link.

People, we are in extraordinary times. But the actions being taken are precisely what the economy needs. Fears of inflation are certainly warranted. but we will be fortunate to have an inflation problem. Hyper-inflation can be dealt with. But rapid dis-inflation or deflation are economic killers. that is what we are combating now.

Bernanke is the foremost expert on how we got into a Great Depression and how to avoid it. he is running the playbook exactly as it should be. Think of it this way, when the system is working, we can argue the strengths of different ideologies andpolitical persuasions. However, when the system is broken, we have to stop the bickering and look at what can fix the problem. Doingnothing, or letting the "weak" fail, is EXACTLY what put us into the GReat Depression. Now we do have FDIC on bank and such, but we can avoid the horrors of a drawn out depression.

There is plenty of money to be made. People who are waiting for a recovery in a traditional sense will be left out in the cold. those who are examining the developments and making their moves will benefit handsomely.

[2TR]

My Boat question turned into advanced economics #101 class. :USA:

[YoungPerformance]

As others have said, the biggest problem I have seen is the financing on a boat that is 10 years old. They are not giving 20 year notes on used boats, like they are/were on new boats. Most people are lucky to get 48-60 months on a 10 year old boat. That puts the note out of reach for most, so they need a big downstroke. Most do not want to get off of their reserve cash for fear of what the economy will do. A lot of people will take on a note, but do not want to unload all of their reserve cash. A guy can go buy a new boat for rock bottom prices and get at least twice the term on repayment. I'm not saying it is smart to take a 20 yr note on a boat, but that is what guys are doing. They are only looking at the monthy payment. It doesn't seem to matter that they will be upside down for ever.
Eddie

[fund razor]

I was surprised that, during the September/October credit crisis I was able to get a 10 year term on my 20 year old Apache at a rate within a point of my mortgage rate.

While I didn't need to take the ten years, I decided to for cash flow convenience while I am putting new power in. I don't think that I will be too far upside down, even after a considerable repower expense.

But, I have to admit that one of the reasons I bought an Apache was for the large resale audience. One of the reasons that I chose new custom power was also to preserve the value and desirability of the boat, just in case.

[VtSteve]

I'd have to agree with Professor Webinar that all indicators are far more stable than in January or February. What we have now is an economy that is off life support, but remains on watch.

As for the boat? Great looking boat. If it's in great shape and surveys well, it seems like a fair price based on NADA Retail. But from what I've seen this year, NADA remains worthless for used boats.

[DollaBill]

A very strong opinion, but most likely incorrect. I just finished recording a 70 minute webinar which will be available soon that points to all the indicators getting stronger. Since I am licensed, i cannot promote it on a national website without being registered in every state. but if anyone wants to PM me, and if I am registered in your state, i will provide the link.

People, we are in extraordinary times. But the actions being taken are precisely what the economy needs. Fears of inflation are certainly warranted. but we will be fortunate to have an inflation problem. Hyper-inflation can be dealt with. But rapid dis-inflation or deflation are economic killers. that is what we are combating now.

Bernanke is the foremost expert on how we got into a Great Depression and how to avoid it. he is running the playbook exactly as it should be. Think of it this way, when the system is working, we can argue the strengths of different ideologies andpolitical persuasions. However, when the system is broken, we have to stop the bickering and look at what can fix the problem. Doingnothing, or letting the "weak" fail, is EXACTLY what put us into the GReat Depression. Now we do have FDIC on bank and such, but we can avoid the horrors of a drawn out depression.

There is plenty of money to be made. People who are waiting for a recovery in a traditional sense will be left out in the cold. those who are examining the developments and making their moves will benefit handsomely.


I can't comment as to Bernake playing the book perfectly, but I can say and have maitained since summer of '07, this isn't anywhere NEAR over and we aren't near a bottom. TB is dead on with the commercial RE market and unsecured credit. It's going to blow up hard.

We may reach a bottom in Jan-May of 2010, but then we have a 5 year climb to normalization and we won't see good times like we did ever again ion our lifetime

[sellsman11]

The sky is falling!!!

[fund razor]

The sky is falling!!!

I had a dream last night that the sky was falling, and it was coming down in pieces and I was trying to keep it off of my boat and car. :)

[HPOffshore]

I can't comment as to Bernake playing the book perfectly, but I can say and have maitained since summer of '07, this isn't anywhere NEAR over and we aren't near a bottom. TB is dead on with the commercial RE market and unsecured credit. It's going to blow up hard.

We may reach a bottom in Jan-May of 2010, but then we have a 5 year climb to normalization and we won't see good times like we did ever again ion our lifetime

TB & DB are more right-than-wrong...there's definitely more fun(sarcasm)to come. There is going to be another wave of foreclosures due to continuing spiral of property values. Don't know nearly as much about the un-secured credit market, but it sounds like the current administation is very worried about it, judging from the legislative actions of late.

[CRT]

Here is a suggestion if you want to sell. It worked for me. Ebay is a cheap way to get your product advertised. It probably won't be sold on Ebay, but you will get lots of exposure if you post the ad correctly. It can be relisted cheap. Also, suprisingly, not everyone who wants a boat searches the internet. 9 solid buyers of mine came from Boattrader Magazine that you pickup in gas stations. Especially in the LOTO area. Just 2 cents. take or leave

[LaughingCat]

TB & DB are more right-than-wrong...there's definitely more fun(sarcasm)to come. There is going to be another wave of foreclosures due to continuing spiral of property values. Don't know nearly as much about the un-secured credit market, but it sounds like the current administation is very worried about it, judging from the legislative actions of late.

I agree, there are more shoes to drop. But the ones who will miss theboat are those who are hoping to get back into a leveraged-flipping situation. Real estate is not going to rise significantly for a long time. It will rest on its core values, stable slow growth with income production.

But for people who are thinking outside that box and looking at other asset class and such, the future holds great potential.

The economic recovery will sneak up on us and not be a magnified bubble. So people will not notice it. Think about it, in the last 2 months, the market has risen over 30%, but people are still talking about how bad things will get. History shows, the market begins it's rise well before the recession is over.

I received several PMs and will respond shortly. Thanks guys.

[jhenrie]

Rick , I'm keeping mine !!!!

[Lomax]

www.powerboatlistings.com is where i listed my twin small block 29 and it sold for alllllllll the money to a buyer from Finland. Its a very desirable boat over there due to the small blocks...price it at $39,999. i had a crazy amount of buyers from out of this country replying to my ad and damn near had a bidding war going on....good luck

[phragle]

if someone is in a position to buy a somewhat expensive toy (relatively) they are going to lowball you because the only thing the see inthere mind is that you need the money. your in mich, so the world thinks your an unemployed autoworker dumping toys trying to eat and avoid foreclosure. the people in the market your aiming for (size/age/price) arent high rollers, so they see todays market and they are no longer looking for a good deal, they are loooking to rape the desperate.

[smittyseng]

Here is a suggestion if you want to sell. It worked for me. Ebay is a cheap way to get your product advertised. It probably won't be sold on Ebay, but you will get lots of exposure if you post the ad correctly. It can be relisted cheap. Also, suprisingly, not everyone who wants a boat searches the internet. 9 solid buyers of mine came from Boattrader Magazine that you pickup in gas stations. Especially in the LOTO area. Just 2 cents. take or leave

This is a good idea and let me add to this,I know several people who have sold boats/exspensive items using E-bay. No,someone didn't bid on their item enough to meet the reserve price and win it but what they did do is see it on their, then CALLED the seller and ended up making deals. Run a E-bay ad,make your buy it now and your reserve realistic (and they should be the same really),take the most flattering and detailed pics you possibly can and the very most important thing: list a good phone number where they will reach you directly 24 hours a day,preferably one with caller id. If you get a out of state call or one that doesn't look familar while your sale is running or afterward and you miss it,call them back and say you missed their call and you were just curious what they needed as some people will only call once and just won't leave a message either. Like I said,I have know guys that ran ads then afterward someone called them and wanted to really negotiate/test drive boat resulting in a sale,Smitty

[Top Banana]

My Boat question turned into advanced economics #101 class. :USA:

My apologies to somewhat hijacking your thread. You have some excellent answers here and your boat looks to be priced right and is in great shape.....good luck with your sale.

Laughing Cat.......believe me I am on your side and wish that everything will turn around and get much better.......but I have a few questions that bother me.

Recently, the government implemented a "Stress test" for banks. Basically they are making sure that the banks have enough capital to be sound while suffering the losses they have incurred. For the banks that don't pass the test, they are being asked to put in more capital or raise more capital.

Bank of America was found to be the weakest of the banks and it was determined that they needed another $34 billion, approx to be safe. They sold assests, like their shares in the Bank of China and sold stock and will raise more by converting some preffered stock to common stock.

Whew, everything will be fine now right?

Well maybe, except for Mr Joe Smith who lives around the block from each one of us. Mr Smith has been a wonderful citizen to date, had a steady job, paid his bills on time, raised a family and contributed back to his community. Mr Smith, through no fault of his own got laid off last fall. Pick any scenario, his company no longer exists. He really truly believes in his heart, that he will get another job soon and continues to look, but nothing yet.

Yesterday the Federal Reserve said unemployment could get much worse like 9.6 % rather than 8.8%

Now the corner strip mall that Mr Jones and his family have been going to for years has a number of small businesses in it. Since Mr Jones lost the job, he and his family don't go as often anymore and have begun to notice that some of the stores have gone out of business and ....For Lease.... signs, are in the windows.

Even though Mr Jones doesn't have that income anymore, he really believes that he is just a day or so away from his next job, so he continues to put some necessities on his credit cards, so he can make his mortgage payment from his available cash.

When the commercial real estate market..Strip malls...and other types, begin to fail, the banks are looking at another round of foreclosures in much bigger amounts than the housing market was. Here comes that nice government man again to ask for more capital to absorb these losses.....more sale of assets and more stock and ...Whew, we did it again.

Nice job, but here comes that pesky old credit card market. Many Mr Jones' have now realized that the new job isn't coming and they have no way to pay the credit cards off, so they have to default....sorry. Yes we know, here comes the government man again and maybe some banks can even do the capital infusion a third time, but many won't make it.

Meanwhile back at the ranch....normal businesses have been trying to borrow money to keep their business alive and their banks are telling them....Yes, you have been a great customer but the government is making us keep higher levels of core capital to pass this stress test, so sorry, no money for you.

The great stock market crash happened in 1929. In 1928, the country was in a recession and the housing market was struggling. The government...yep them again, chose to raise the discount rate to the banks from 3.5% to 6%. They effectively cut the available money supply.....sound familiar..no money to borrow. The legislators at the same time were passing a protectionist tariff. No money, no chance of import export trade to help. The market reacted and in three days in October 1929, the market collapsed.

In 1932 Roosevelt replaced Hoover as President and began a massive Goverment Stimulus plans...sound familiar? The National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933, forced 2 million businesses under government control, with a huge federal bureauracy that set everything from production to pricing. Sound a little like the GM and Chrysler scenario to you?

Experts agreed later that if the government stayed out of the problem, the depression would have been over 7 years earleir. Roosevelt never saw less than 14% unemployment during his 8 years, despite all the stimulus money and programs he threw at it.


So here we are at 2009.....this is either going your way and get better or the other way and get worse.....what is worse? Only time will tell.....we both can't be right....and believe me I am really rooting for your side to win.

Now, I'll shut up and we will just have to wait and see what happens.

PS Please send me your web article, I'd love to read it.

[Excalibur Racing]

I thought the crash of 1929 had alot to do with people borrowing money to put in the stock market, when it went down they had loans, no money banks forclosed etc. Then people caused a run on the banks took out their money the banks failed etc, sound familar? Guy's and Gals I hope you have planted your victory garden just in case! I have and just got an AR-10 .300 Express to protect it.

[LaughingCat]

Both the !930's and this downturn are very complex and can not adequately be compared and contrasted thru a chatboard. However, just some basic differences:

FDIC In the 30's, there was no FDIC coverage. As banks began to fail, the government simply got out of the way. Assumption was, let the weak ones fail, the strong ones will be fine. Bank failures spread like a rapid cancer as people worried every bank was bad. The whole system crashed.

They raised taxes back then, increased interest rates and basically cut off monetary flow into the system. So an economy stiffled by consumer decline was amplified by government ineptitude. It took years before they even figured out that the Crash of 1929 was caused by a group of speculators, I believe one was named JP Morgan and another named Rockefeller, decided they could short everything, on a monster scale. The fear of a sell-off would get everyone selling. they covered at the bottom. Years later, those players we brought in to write the SEC Acts of 31 and 34. who better than the people who caused it. kind of like getting gotti to write a truly effective anti-mafia legislation once he's pocketed everything he could dream of and would not face prosecution.

Funny thing is, legislation written back then included Glas-Steagle Act and Naked short Selling rule. Both were repealed in the last 10 years. In addition, the uptick rule. Right now, the market has been overly compressed down by excessive short selling which cannot hold it down forever.

The govt has four engines at their disposal. And fortunately, Bernanke is the formost expert on how we got into the Great Depression and how to avoid it. He's playing the book by the rules. He's flooding the economy with cash to avoid deflation or deression. Taxes have been cut, as seen on our employees paychecks starting in April, they've pushed stimulus packages and rates are near 0. Exactly the opposite of what ushered in the GD. So there is the chance we can go into GD 2.0, but let's be realistic. Americans aren't sitting around wondering wha tis going on. They have every medium possible telling them what is or is not happening in every crack of the world in real time.

On top of all that, Americans have NO interest in accepting that the great Capitalism experiment of the last few centuries failed and we can all crawl into luxury fridgerator boxes and begin cooking old tennis shoes under a crumbling highway overpass. Instead, they will accept whatever work they can get. Bridging the gap betweenwhen the recession started and when we emerge is a series of events, news periods and economic incidences that appear dramatic and almost horrifying. But the saying goes, it is always darkest before the dawn. People are going to have hardships and it is very easy to project forward based on current trajectory. but a turn ALWAYS comes.

Governmnet has taken all four engines and put them at full throttle. It will take and we will recover. We will be fortunate to have an inflation problem. That will seem like a simply lean/rich adjustment compared to a deflation/depression hardship on our 'racecar.'

I am still waiting for my compliance department's permission to post my website so everyone can hear my March conference call, future confernece calls and the Shifting from Defense to Offense presentation I just recorded. And please note, i am not soliciting anyone to go out and do anything with their money. Detailed planning always comes before I recommend anything.

[VtSteve]

Naked short selling rules have not been repealed to the best of my knowledge. A shoddy regulation, SHO, was put into effect in 2005. The SEC had been barraged by complaints from smaller companies that Naked Short Sellers were destroying the stocks, but they did nothing mostly. During the worst of the banking moments last year, they not only enforced some of the naked short rules, they banned shorting on many financial stocks. IMO, the uptick rules should have stayed.

I don';t believe the market has compressed too low. When ten years of financial profits are wiped out, chit happens. Some may just be overvalued still, due to a myriad of fake accounting tweaks performed.

The Great Depression was different for many reasons. Following the market crash, you had a severe cutback in consumer spending. A major and severe drought devastated the midsection of the country in 1930. You had low interest rates and available credit, but very alarmed and cautious consumers.

It's a very interesting discussion that explains many of the financial and central banking features we have now. Pointing only to government interference is pretty simplistic. England's Gold Standard return would be far more interesting.

[DollaBill]

I would call the current "pull-back" in consumer spending the most intense since the depression. People ARE scared and are not spending anything. I don't care what the govt is telling CNBC.

[JupiterSunsation]

The sky is falling!!!

Don't you need to get back to dusting off your inventory.......:26:

[JupiterSunsation]

i would call the current "pull-back" in consumer spending the most intense since the depression. People are scared and are not spending anything. I don't care what the govt is telling cnbc.

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[Heavyhauler]

A recession is when your neighbor gets laid off. A depression is when you get laid off.