Making the best of the Obama gun ban...

[X-Rated30]

Hey - we know it is coming, so why not try to make the best of it. I called my broker yesterday and asked what it would do for gun manufacturer's stocks. She had no info and dismissed the idea. She could only find one stock RGR (Ruger) and could give no info. I did a little research tonight and I am changing brokers tomorrow.

I looked a little and found out Smith and Wesson (SWHC) has gone up about 400% since November (RGR has only doubled). If the stocks keep increasing, good buy. If they fall closer to the ban, why not short sell them?

Stimulus spending should keep military and police purchases going for the short term, but I believe the ban will stop that and reverse that proportionately to the severity of the ban. (We don't know how extreme the ban will be.) Just the threat of a ban has probably fueled a large part of the run-up, so short selling right before a ban could net BIG.

What other firearm and ammunition related stocks are out there? What do you think the future holds for them? (Please reserve the Obama bashing for other threads, as this one is not for complaining about politics -- just capitalizing on them.)

 

[Audiofn]

You are to late more then likely for the ride up. S&W is doing so much better because they make guns that are legal in ALL states.

 

[Chris]

Since the day after the Clinton gun ban expired, there has been legislation put forth in Congress on the reinstatement of the legislation. And it is not now going, nor will it go anywhere.

It is universally accepted in all but the most left-wing of circles that the gun ban was an abject failure. To begin with, the data doesn't lie- the gun ban had no effect. That's not surprising since the targets of that original ban were statistical non-issues before the legislation was written. The use of high-magazine-capacity weapons in homicides was statistically insignificant and still is today. Flash hiders and bayonet lugs never did contribute and being black, having a pistol grip and looking like a military weapon might scare some people, but those attributes did not statistically affect homicides in our country. The Clinton gun ban was based purely on an emotional raction to the LA bank robbery where two men using automatic weapons held police at bay in a very dramatic shootout. One that led to no fatalities, I might ad. It was feel-good legislation from the start.

I posted this last week. I'd suggest you read the articles I linked.

Obama is highly unlikely to get the support he needs to get anything like the Clinton-era assault weapons bill. Congress has changed and many of the former anti-gun senior dems have been replaced with pro-gun or gun-neutral guys. There just isn't a political will in the populace to make it happen. This article from the Wall Street Journal details some of the political pressures that some senior dems face, including nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123690314709013801.html

This doesn't stop the constant reintroduction of the bill to reinstate the 1994 ban. If you'd like to read more on why Congress failed to continue the ban upon it's expiration, read firther down on this page- http://www.nraila.org/Issues/FactSheets/Read.aspx?id=238

If you want to overpay for a firearm, there's no better time than right now. But you'll kick yourself in a year or so.

Bottom line- an assault weapons ban would do exactly what it did last time- nothing. We have an incredible number of laws on the books already barring many bad acts and restricting firearms ownership and use. Making something that's already illegal MORE illegal seems silly.

 

[fund razor]

I missed that last week Chris. Thanks for the repost.
Interesting info.

 

[Tony]

You are to late more then likely for the ride up. S&W is doing so much better because they make guns that are legal in ALL states.

Yup. I also cant bring myself to show any support to Ruger after Bill's 1989 hint to congress to ban hi cap magazines.

A few years ago Jim Zumbo got added to that same list.

 

[Chris]

Yeah- I'm glad that Bill Ruger is dead. He WROTE the legislation.

http://www.thegunzone.com/rkba/papabill.html

 

[X-Rated30]

And it is not now going, nor will it go anywhere.

I agree with everything you have said except this. You seem to think it won't pass, because it won't work. Wrong.

I hope it doesn't, but it is the triumph of hope over reason to assume it won't.

 

[Sea-Dated]

What about ammo companies? Ammo seems to be hard to find right now and even if the gun bans don't happen, there is still a lot of talk about taxing the hell out of ammo. Get in now and dump right before the new taxes are announced or take effect....

Just a thought from someone who knows very little about the market.

 

[clayinaustin]

When did "investing" go from a long-term well though-out stragedy to a "roll of the dice" gamble?

 

[Sea-Dated]

When did "investing" go from a long-term well though-out stragedy to a "roll of the dice" gamble?

Everyone wants to get rich fast........

 

[clayinaustin]

Everyone wants to get rich fast........

Then go to Vegas! Just stay out of my retirement fund!

 

[X-Rated30]

Keep your retirement fund out of my get rich scheme!!!!:sifone:

Just kidding, but the market is what it is.

 

[clayinaustin]

yeah, I know. I just remember traders driving up the price of oil last year. They got rich (in the short run) and I had to pay $4 a gallon for my boat gas.

Now the econony is in the tank because banks leveraged themselved to illegal levels and the whole thing came crashing down.

My 401k has lost 50% of its value in the last 12 months. It makes me sick.