Market Getting Taken Apart (again)

[bootdaddy]

Gut check time people...this is going to be really ugly...

Gonna have to send mom some money...her 401k is going to a 101k!

With some luck we may find a meaningful panic bottom today...but there is no foreseeable news that will help this thing bottom.

Gold is in range here...other than that, run for the hills.

ouch.

[bootdaddy]

where's marginman?

[bootdaddy]

I just heard a guy on CNBC say that we have the smartest people in the world trying to solve the problem and it will get fixed...!!!

um...Mr. Market always wins and cannot be controlled...more and more futile government engineering simply adds panid to this market. Gov should stay out and just let the thing unfold (unravel). All gov spending now will just hamper any real or meaningful or needed growth in the future.

If your business is struggling, do you look for ways to spend more money??? No, you look for ways to spend less and get more from your current investments.

This is truly an historic event unfolding and many many books will be written about it...

[open72]

watching cnbc , i wonder if "today" will be that "day" ..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27358270

[bootdaddy]

not as bad as it looked...my guess would be a massive bear market rally early next week following next selloff - but it won't last

it's almost as if there are no sellers left to panic out...and there are certainly very few buyers willing to step up before year end.

[bootdaddy]

my guess would be a massive bear market rally early next week following next selloff - but it won't last

as planned - up huge...now let's see if they can test 87-8800 level and hold.

seems like the market wants to shrug off bad news...and it will have plenty to digest going forward.

October has historically been a strange and crazy month and continues to act schizo!

congrats to those who did not get shaken out of their positions.

[runninhotracing]

[QUOTE=bootdaddy;9008]as planned - up huge...now let's see if they can test 87-8800 level and hold.



test 87-8800 ??????
If ya cant make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ on the 800 pt swings gotta hang it up BIG Daddy
TLAB
ACAS
BMY
ISIS

[open72]

bought MS @ 14 yesterday, fuker dropped to 10 back up to 15 , missed 10k

[bootdaddy]

[QUOTE=runninhotracing;9023]

as planned - up huge...now let's see if they can test 87-8800 level and hold.



test 87-8800 ??????
If ya cant make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ on the 800 pt swings gotta hang it up BIG Daddy
TLAB
ACAS
BMY
ISIS

rhr welcome. Coulda swore I saw you post something about buying the dips 1500+ points or so higher on another board. Glad to see you kept some powder dry.

[runninhotracing]

[QUOTE=bootdaddy;9087]

rhr welcome. Coulda swore I saw you post something about buying the dips 1500+ points or so higher on another board. Glad to see you kept some powder dry.

Glad to see you kept some powder dry...Alwayz cant stay in for loooong in a sidewayz market
Does'nt matter where the dow is when the dip is there and the margin call selling is takin place the fire sale is on ...buy the weakness

[MarylandMark]

So I went from 10% pre-tax to 16% pre-tax about 2 months ago.

I have 15+ years until I retire so figure regardless of how bad it gets (down 41% YTD so far) that it has to come back by then. Right?

[getchasum111]

So I went from 10% pre-tax to 16% pre-tax about 2 months ago.

I have 15+ years until I retire so figure regardless of how bad it gets (down 41% YTD so far) that it has to come back by then. Right?

Whats up MM....going to be in your neck of the woods early next month....how far are you from Woodbridge Va....

[bootdaddy]

Ultimately the money on the sidelines will have to "live" somewhere. Problem is that the entire financial system is going through a systemic problem (too much leverage and the ponzi pyramid failed) and nobody really knows what model capital will take going forward...smells like a worldwide deep recession

Hearing Italy and Spain on bankruptcy watch - too much soverign debt. Brazil - 2nd failure in a decade coming quick.

EVERY asset class is being taken down.. Diamonds for example are down about 50%!!! Heard a story where a guy bought a $50 million diamond in NYC and store policy is full return/refund within 60 days...well the guy brought it a back and the company honored it and is eating God only knows how much $...

I did hear one interesting investment idea...Yale University Municipal Bonds yeilding 8-8.5% tax free and with Obama coming in with higher taxes could yield 12%+ tax free...oh...and they are guaranteed by and fully backed by the University's Endowment Fund!

15 years is a long time...stay conservative and go to the movies if the markets are "bothering" your mojo!

[MarylandMark]

15 years is a long time...stay conservative and go to the movies if the markets are "bothering" your mojo!

I does suck watching it drop but I know/hope it is the best thing for my situation in the long run.

I'd rather buy a share of XYZ at $25 today even if I paid $50 for it last month because the hope would be it is worth much more than either if those amounts when I retire.

I'm already "making" 10% (avg tax rate I've paid on last 5 IRS returns) since I am buying with pre-tax money and my company matches me 82% of the first 6%.

When it went under 10K I bounced up from 10% to 16%- buy low right?

More millionaires were made during the Great Depression than any other time in history- my time is now! I hope...

15 years is a long time- has to go up some time right?

[open72]

td ameritrade...

[MarylandMark]

Sounds good Chip! PM me the dates and what your schedule is like.

50ish miles by car; right across the river by boat. Seltzer and a few other BF/OSO/SOS'ers live over there as well that may want to come help drink the well dry.

[bootdaddy]

all I can say is be very very conservative...just because stocks are cheap is no reason they can't get cheaper (or yield more).

5000 on the dow is certainly possible.

some very smart people I know are in no rush whatsoever to do anything in the market...it's going to take some time and we are much closer to the beginning of this calamity than the end.

If you have to buy...just scale in little by little

my .02

[MarylandMark]

5000 on the dow is certainly possible.

Freaky that you said 5K- I had some thing about that in my post but deleted before posting...

I have said for about a year now that I want $10 fuel, 12% interest rates and the DOW to drop to 5K. My reason is for housing to drop and so I can buy on the cheap in my 401K.

I have cash down, great credit and non-contingent buyer. $350K house at 12% is the same payment as $600K at 6% but some time in the next 30 years I'd most likely be able to get a lower than 12% rate where if I paid $600K; that is what I owe.

I ask because I value your opinion. So what do I do with:

Current contributions:

Drop my 401K contributions to 0 until the bottom is reached? This is an auto-investment plan- I can't say the bottom is here, here is $10K so buy now.

Drop to 6% since the company matches me 82%? Doing this would be because the company matches me and it is pre-tax money so it would have to drop 92% for me to break even so to speak?

Keep it at 16% pre tax? Doing this would be hoping it recovers in the next 15 years.

What I have already invested:

Leave where it is; no reason to lock in my losses so just ride it out

Dump and head to a Bond fund paying around 3% but more importantly stopping the bleeding.

[Ratickle]

Current contributions:

Drop to 6% since the company matches me 82%? Doing this would be because the company matches me and it is pre-tax money so it would have to drop 92% for me to break even so to speak?

What I have already invested:

Leave where it is; no reason to lock in my losses so just ride it out

Do not drop below matching contribution level. Your actual return is higher than the match because it is pre-tax dollars. ie: You put in $1, company puts in $0.82, no tax on original $1 so Uncle Sam lets you keep the $0.25 to $0.50 he would have taken had you not invested through a 401K. Actual return on $1, over 100%.

Depending on where your money is, ride it out but make sure you are properly distributed. If you review, (Below this is a link to Vanguard Funds, I don't know what your choices currently are but this is similar to what you want to review.) your investments, and if they are not evenly distributed, move some around. You want to average a return of 11% over 7 year spans. That is the approximate doubling stage of investments and what the market has averaged over its life. History says it will get back there, but no guarantees. I believe you divide up into approximately 1/4 Cash or Gold type, 1/4 Bonds or Treasuries type, 1/4 Growth Stocks, and 1/4 Old Dividend Stocks Type.

There are others on here more qualified to tell how to divide and when, this is an approximate model to see where you may not be diverse enough and therefore got hammered a little too hard.

http://www.vanguard.com/us/FundsInde...erTB=avgAnnTBI

Here is a picture of the Wilshire 500. If you notice the average growth, then look at the couple of booms and busts, you will see it is very normal type growth except for the DotCom mess caused by phony crooks and the current housing mess caused by phony crooks. Until someone arrests and prosecutes these guys, it will happen again and again because they get rich by duping others out of money and get to keep it while all others pay. If someone can throw tens of millions of dollars at you for getting your company stock or growth to a certain level, the crooked power guys have zero problem doing it. Then there is no prosecution for fraudulent paperwork and statements.

It looks to me like the market has over-reacted a bit and passed the normal support mark but it should stabilize and grow some soon. If this was not an election year, it probably would have stabilized by now.

[MarylandMark]

Do not drop below matching contribution level. Your actual return is higher than the match because it is pre-tax dollars. ie: You put in $1, company puts in $0.82, no tax on original $1 so Uncle Sam lets you keep the $0.25 to $0.50 he would have taken had you not invested through a 401K. Actual return on $1, over 100%.

I typed up, ate and then hit post on above before reading your post.

I was thinking the same thing!!! I pay around 10% taxes so that along with the 82% match on the 1st 6% it is a no brainer no matter how low it goes.

Verizon uses Fidelity and we have 21 mutual funds to choose from.

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 10/24/2008 is -41.6%

Personal Rate of Return from 10/25/2006 to 12/31/2007 is +12 (will only let me go back 24 months)

Dow was 12,134.68 on 10/25/06 and 13,264.82 on 12/31/07 (which is around 9.5% so I did 25%+ better than the DOW)