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    Not Looking Good For Great Lakes Water Levels!
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    Founding Member / Super Moderator Ratickle's Avatar
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    Great Lakes boaters and shippers to likely face record-low water levels into 2013

    MUSKEGON, MI – Mariners – both commercial and recreational – are being warned that the Lake Michigan, Lake Huron and Lake Superior water levels are dangerously close to all-time record lows.

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Wednesday provided estimates that if the current trend of Great Lakes water level drops continue, the three upper lakes – Michigan, Huron and Superior – will hit historic lows later this fall or in early 2013.

    The biggest factor in Great Lake water levels is the region's climate, according to Keith Kompoltowicz, chief hydrologist for the Army Corps' Detroit District Office. A combination of a mild winter and little snow last year with a hot summer and little rain this year has brought about the current lake conditions, he said.

    "We are seeing much lower water levels than we had last year and that is the case all over the Great Lakes," Kompoltowicz said.

    Even the above average rain falls in the past month have not changed the direction of lake levels, Kompoltowicz said. The Great Lakes basin will need a typical winter with much more snow than last year to stem the likely, he said.

    Great Lakes boaters and shippers to likely face record-low water levels into 2013 | MLive.com

    This pic is of the south side of the inlet at Muskegon Lake where people anchor and raft up. July 2011 vs October 2012.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    http://photos.mlive.com/muskegonchro...egon_l_10.html
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    #2
    Registered HiZ's Avatar
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    More Island vacations?
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    Sad
    I really hoped that the floods would at least put a little help there...
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    Paul, not saying that the levels aren't lower, but as far as the pic goes, I could take a pic of the western end of Lake Erie any July and compare it to any October, and October is gonna show mud. Is seasonal differential part of the pic difference?
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    #5
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    Well, after looking, maybe July is the highest water level every year. Odd...

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    So far so good on my end. I launched at Hammond Marina in IN two weeks ago, and in St. Joseph (on a buds' 31 Sonic) on Sunday with no issue at either place. The St. Joe river is a little tricky, though...depth finder got down to 2 feet a couple times while idling out!
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    I thought the Joe was deeper than that. Thats a pretty big river.
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    We were ok on Erie this year. In fact, I went out this week and levels were higher than normal for this time of year.
    (Fall is typically looooowwww.) The wind direction helped, but there was more to it than that.
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    #9
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    I would have thought that Erie would be a mud puddle by now.
    Usually is by this time of year.
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    #10
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    Because of all the rain this year, Lake Michigan is actually 1 1/2 feet higher now than it was in January.
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    that is good!!!
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    An "actual" winter is bound to help. We are way up on snow and the lake is freezing over.
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    Certainly greater snowfall than past years...
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    Great Lakes Water Levels Are in Unusual Decline

    LiveScience.com
    By By Becky Oskin, Staff Writer
    February 3, 2014 10:08 AM

    The Great Lakes share a surprising connection with Wisconsin's small lakes and aquifers — their water levels all rise and fall on a 13-year cycle, according to a new study. But that cycle is now mysteriously out of whack, researchers have found.

    "The last two decades have been kind of exceptional," said Carl Watras, a climate scientist with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

    Water levels have been declining since 1998, Watras told Live Science. "Our lakes have never been lower than they are."

    The research was published Jan. 21 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

    According to 70 years of lake and aquifer records from northern Wisconsin, the states' small lakes usually rise and fall on a regular cycle — about six years up, and six years down. But since 1998, there has been only one brief uptick in levels, in 2002 through 2003).

    Both the normal 13-year cycle and unusual recent downward trend are mirrored in the world's biggest freshwater water body, the linked Great Lakes of Michigan and Huron, Watras said.

    "What that tells us is some hydrologic driver is operating on all of these lakes, and groundwater in the region, and controlling the water levels," Watras said.

    Earlier research uncovered a 12-year cycle of rising and falling lake levels in the Michigan-Huron lakes, as well as a shorter 8-year cycle. [The Great Lakes: North America's 'Third Coast']

    "It is likely the same signal," said Janel Hanrahan, a climate scientist at Lyndon College in Vermont and lead author of the earlier studies, who was not involved in the new research. Hanrahan attributed the 8-year cycle to changes in precipitation during the winter months, and the 12-year cycle to precipitation changes during the summer.

    Watras and his co-authors similarly link the long-term rise and fall in Wisconsin's lakes to an cyclic atmospheric pattern called the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), a narrow, high-altitude wind similar to the jet stream. The pattern flows about 16,500 feet (5,000 meters) above the Midwest, bringing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

    Since the lake levels started their downward plunge in the late 1990s, the CGT's pattern has been stuck in a position that means less rainfall for Wisconsin, the study found. But evaporation also plays a role. Warmer-than-average winters since 1998 kept smaller lakes free of ice for longer time spans, allowing more water to escape through evaporation.

    "The balance between precipitation and evaporation is key," Watras said.

    The good news is that with this year's polar vortex icing the Great Lakes, combined with an early freeze in November that put a lid on small lakes, 2014 could be a better year overall for Wisconsin's lakes, Watras said.

    "Our crystal ball is foggy," he said. "Things may return to normal, but we don't know. This year we are seeing lake levels and groundwater levels rise a little bit, but we don't know whether the uptick will be sustained or everything will continue to crash. At least now we have a history to look back on, and make comparisons."


    http://news.yahoo.com/great-lakes-wa...150819545.html
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    The great lakes evaporate more in the fall and winter due to the greater differential between air and water temp, combined with higher average winds. In a single day, they could lose one half to one inch of depth. That, combined with lake-effect snow that sometimes deposits water just outside of the great lakes basin can add up over a few years when there is a lot of open water. In a single fall day, many times more water is lost to evaporation than goes over the niagra falls.

    Currently, lake erie is 95% frozen. An unusually large percentage. This will decrease the amount of winter AND spring loss. I think that lake erie will be unsually high this year. It was up somewhat last year.
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    #16
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    Regardless of these scientific studies and research...
    My GUESS is that the lakes are going torise this year.
    With all of our extra snow and the complete freezing of the big lakes I do not think I need to be a G D genius of waste federal grant $$ to make this prediction.
    I am actually pretty worried that a rapid thaw is going to be a floody mess.
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    #17
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    CHEBOYGAN, Mich. (AP) – From the bridge of the Coast Guard cutter Mackinaw, northern Lake Huron looks like a vast, snow-covered field dotted with ice slabs as big as boulders — a battleground for the icebreaker’s 58-member crew during one of the roughest winters in memory.
    It’s been so bitterly cold for so long in the Upper Midwest that the Great Lakes are almost completely covered with ice. The last time they came this close was in 1994, when 94 percent of the lakes’ surface was frozen.

    As of Thursday, ice cover extended across 88 percent, according to the federal government’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor.
    Sections of the lakes, which hold nearly one-fifth of the freshwater on the world’s surface, harden almost every winter. That freezing keeps the Coast Guard’s fleet of nine icebreakers busy clearing paths for vessels hauling essential cargo such as heating oil, salt and coal. But over the past four decades, the average ice cover has receded 70 percent, scientists say, probably in part because of climate change.

    Still, as this season shows, short-term weather patterns can trump multi-year trends. Winter arrived early and with a vengeance and refuses to loosen its grip.
    “That arctic vortex came down, and the ice just kept going,” said George Leshkevich, a physical scientist with the federal lab.

    The deep freeze is more than a novelty. By limiting evaporation, it may help replenish lake water levels — a process that began last year after a record-breaking slump dating to the late 1990s. Also getting relief are cities along the lakes that have been pummeled with lake-effect snow, which happens when cold air masses suck up moisture from open waters and dump it over land.

    Buffalo, N.Y, got nearly 43 inches of snow in January, but this month just 13 inches have fallen, a decline resulting largely from the freeze-over of Lake Erie even though Lake Ontario has remained largely open, said forecaster Jon Hitchcock of the National Weather Service.

    Heavy ice can also protect fish eggs from predators, and it has delighted photographers, ice anglers and daredevil snowmobilers.

    At Apostle Islands National Lakeshore in Wisconsin, the rock-solid cover has allowed around 35,000 visitors to trudge miles over Lake Superior to explore caves featuring dazzling ice formations. It’s the first time in five years the lake surface has been firm enough to allow passage.
    With no letup in the cold, the ice hasn’t experienced the usual thaw-and-freeze cycle, so nature’s artistry is even more delicate and beautiful, with needle-like hoarfrost crystals sprinkled across sheets that dangle from cave ceilings like giant chandeliers.

    “Seeing them like this is almost a once-in-a-lifetime experience,” Superintendent Bob Krumenaker said.

    There’s even an (apparently) tongue-in-cheek Facebook page inviting people to join a convoy of snowmobiles, cars and other vehicles on a nearly 80-mile trek across Lake Michigan. Never mind that its waters remain partly open and experts warn the ice can be dangerously unstable.

    “If it freezes, and you miss this chance, when will it happen again?” the page says. “Feel free to invite more folks!”

    For Coast Guard icebreaker teams, it’s all business. They’ve logged four times more hours this season than the average for the same period in recent years, said Kyle Niemi, spokesman for the agency’s Cleveland district headquarters.

    The 240-foot-long Mackinaw began its duties Dec. 16 — several weeks earlier than usual — and worked nonstop until Feb. 8, when traffic slowed enough to allow a break.

    “As you can imagine, the crew’s tired,” Cmdr. Michael Davanzo said this week during a tour of the ship in its home port of Cheboygan.
    A 35-year Coast Guard veteran who has spent 12 years on the lakes, Davanzo said this winter is the toughest he’s experienced because the ice came so soon and is so thick and widespread, and the weather has been constantly bitter.

    The Mackinaw, commissioned in 2006 to replace an older vessel with the same name, is designed specifically for duty on the Great Lakes. It’s propelled by two “Azipod” thrusters that can spin 360 degrees and fire jets of water at adjacent ice, weakening it. Sometimes the crew will drive the ship’s bow onto an ice sheet to crack it with sheer weight. Or they’ll go backward, chopping up ice with the propeller blades.

    When the going gets tough, there’s the battering-ram option — hurling the reinforced hull directly against walls of ice that can be several feet thick.
    The workload typically drops sharply after navigational locks on the St. Marys River, the link between Lakes Superior and Huron, close in mid-January and most large cargo haulers dock for winter. But the ice was so thick this year that a number of freighters were still struggling to complete final deliveries days later. Even now, demand for road salt and heating oil in the Midwest is keeping some icebreakers busy.

    One day last month, the Mackinaw spent 16 grueling hours helping a freighter squeeze through a narrow 3.5-mile section of the St. Marys. As the Mackinaw attacks the ice, the engines roar and the ship vibrates. The noise and motion are “like living in an earthquake 16 hours a day,” Petty Officer 3rd Class Ryan Alderman said.

    Davanzo hopes for rain and warmer temperatures that would melt some ice before the locks reopen in late March, when the Mackinaw will venture onto Lake Superior and clear paths for iron ore and coal haulers.

    “But if the weather stays like this,” he said, “we could be breaking ice all the way to the middle of May.”

    Despite the inconvenience, there’s a silver lining for shippers. Since the low-water period began in late 1990s, they’ve been forced to carry lighter loads to avoid scraping bottom in shallow channels and harbors. Heavy snow and rain in 2013 finally raised water levels.

    Ice cover blocks evaporation, the leading cause of low water. It also will keep the lakes cooler for a longer time this year, delaying the onset of heavy evaporation season, scientist John Lenters reported in a paper last month, although the benefit is partially offset by stepped-up evaporation shortly before the ice forms.
    In Lake Superior, snowbound Isle Royale National Park is home to a dwindling and inbred wolf population that is usually trapped on the island. Biologists hope a newcomer or two will venture to the park now that the lake is almost entirely frozen over. The park’s first wolves are believed to have crossed an ice bridge from Canada, 15 miles away, in the late 1940s.

    There’s also a chance that one or more of the island’s wolves could grab the rare opportunity to escape.
    “They are inveterate travelers,” veteran wolf expert Rolf Peterson said. “And they don’t need a reason that would make sense to us.”


    http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/02/...overed-in-ice/
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    WOW

    “But if the weather stays like this,” he said, “we could be breaking ice all the way to the middle of May
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    #19
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    That part got my attention too!!
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    Great Lakes water levels: How much will all this snow raise Lake Michigan, Huron?

    There is obviously a lot of snow on the ground in Michigan, so how much will it help raise water levels in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron when it melts?

    I asked the geography department at Northern Illinois University (my alma mater) to help me do some math.

    The above graphic shows the "snow water equivalent" of all the snow on the ground currently.

    Wei Luo, presidential research professor at NIU, imported the data from February 14, 2014 into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) program.

    Luo found that the drainage basin of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron held an average of 5.5 inches of water. So we took the area of Lake Michigan-Huron and put that amount of water on top of the lake surface.

    The 5.5 inches of water on the drainage basin equals 11.1 inches of water on the lake. In other words, if all of the snow melted and made it into Lake Michigan-Huron, the lake level would rise 11.1 inches.

    Of course, it won't all make it into the lakes, notes Drew Gronewold, physical scientist at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

    The snow cover will also evaporate, sublimate, and even go into the deeper ground water, Gronewold said.

    He does say that there are a lot of reasons to believe in a significant rise in lake levels of Lake Michigan-Huron this spring and summer. Aside from the snow-melt runoff into the lakes, the colder water now could mean lower evaporation this summer.

    GLERL runs a computer model that attempts to predict lake levels. The research computer model currently predicts a nearly 17 inch rise on Lake Michigan-Huron. This level would be reached in July or August.

    Lake Michigan-Huron has risen 15 inches since the low water mark in January 2013.

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, issues the official lake level forecast.

    The most current forecast calls for Lake Michigan-Huron to rise 13.5 inches from the current level, said Jim Lewis, hydraulic engineer at the Army Corps of Engineers.

    That means Lake Michigan-Huron will make gains on approaching its long term average.

    When the lake level tops out this summer, Lake Michigan-Huron is projected to be only 11 inches below the long term average. Last year the lakes topped out 14 inches below long term average.

    At the forecast peak level this coming summer, Lake Michigan-Huron will be eight inches higher than last summer.

    Lewis also says Lake Michigan-Huron has risen 15 inches since the low water mark in January 2013. To put it in perspective, that is an additional 12 trillion gallons in Lake Michigan-Huron.

    The current lake level forecast uses the Climate Prediction Center's summer forecast, and assumes near normal precipitation in spring and summer. If we should get into heavy rainfall like last spring, lake levels would be higher than currently predicted.

    A new lake level forecast will be issued by the Army Corps of Engineers in March.

    But it is safe to assume there will be more water to swim in this year. It just may be that the water may be a little too cold to stay in long.


    http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.s...els_how_m.html
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